THE VALUATION OF GOOGLE AND APPLE LIES IN THE EYE OF THE INVESTOR

By U-T San Diego 12:01 a.m.Feb. 2, 2014
Apple and Google are among the most innovative and powerful companies in the world. Both have a market cap of about $400 billion — actually Apple is at $446 billion, but Google is quickly closing the gap.
Both are immensely profitable and have plenty of cash in the bank. But it seems that Wall Street treats them very differently. Apple is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, while Google is trading at 32. It is said that the P/E ratio is a measure of market expectations. Why does the market favor Google more than Apple?
Last week, Apple beat analysts’ earnings estimates. As always, it guided next quarter’s numbers conservatively and the market did not like it. Wall Street wants to see growth and it has long realized that with the current product line, Apple will have a hard time growing. Apple sold 51 million iPhones last quarter. It earns $13 billion per quarter and has $160 billion in the bank — who would not love to have problems like these? Apparently, many shareholders. Since Apple said it will resume paying a dividend in March 2012, it has lost 15 percent of its market cap.
Meanwhile, Google is spending like a drunken sailor and the market loves it. The search giant missed earnings estimates last quarter and its stock still went higher. Wall Street loves Larry Page and Sergey Brin. First, because the Google co-founders have delivered and made their shareholders richer. Second, because those two are not afraid to go chase after crazy dreams. Google is buying robotic and artificial intelligence companies, developing the most successful wearable technology yet (Google Glass) and working on driverless car technology, while its core ad business is booming. Wall Street loves brave companies, at least as of right now.
“If you want to be long innovation, you should be long Google,” says hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller. Apple is also innovating, but not at a pace that Wall Street likes and expects.
The companies have different core investors. Google stock is owned predominantly by growth investors who are willing to overlook an earnings miss because they expect a brighter future. Apple is predominantly owned by value-oriented opportunists who want to make money now, so every little mistake is noted.
Still, Apple is not going anywhere. Everyone who has ever tried a Mac is never going back to a PC. People who use iPhones do not consider switching. Apple is a great company that sells great products, but is it a great stock at these levels? Some smart investors like Carl Icahn seem to think so and are putting their money behind their mouth. But Icahn is investing in Apple, the cash machine, not Apple, once the most innovative company in the world.

 

Comments

THE VALUATION OF GOOGLE AND APPLE LIES IN THE EYE OF THE INVESTOR — 2 Comments

  1. Great post, Kev. That’s article dumbed down a 40 minute EMBOW annual meeting discussion (on the same subject) in a way that makes a lot of sense to me. I’m sure the entire cartel has read it by now and agrees. Larry